Welcome!

CRM Authors: Xenia von Wedel, Ian Khan, PR.com Newswire, Steve Mordue

Related Topics: @CloudExpo

@CloudExpo: Blog Post

The IT Dilemma Meets Cloud Computing

Technology Refresh and the Law of Plentitude

Emerging technologies have always forced business decision-makers to decide if they will embrace a new technology s a first-mover, or if they will maintain their existing technologies. Each brings a risk – does the cost of maintaining existing technology result in higher maintenance and operational expenses, or does the cost of embracing and acquiring new technology put an unwarranted capital and process change burden on the organization?

Many years ago (~15) the Northern Telecom (Nortel) DMS 100/250/300/500 line of digital telephone switches represented one of the finest technologies for digital communications. The cost was high, but the technology promised telecom carriers everything they would need to operate their networks well into the next generation, which was not yet associated with a real time horizon. At least in marketing PowerPoint slides. Buy a DMS 500, and you will be running that for a couple decades.

Then seemingly overnight the Internet matured, with communications applications such as Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP), Skype, Vonage, and other Internet-enabled utilities. Suddenly the DMS, 5ESS, 4ESS, NEAC, DSC – all became obsolete almost overnight, replaced by simple Internet-friendly communication applications or Internet Protocol-based "soft switches" which managed telephony over the Internet protocol with a form factor about the size of a mini-refrigerator, And 100 times the switching capacity.

Technology refresh and the law of plentitiudeAnd, as with all soon-to-be-obsolete technologies, the cost of maintaining the legacy system, finding spare parts for the legacy system, and even finding operators for the legacy system may be rapidly hitting a point of extreme risk. The old telephone switches are now most often found in landfills, gone forever.

Traditional telecommunication transmission protocols such as SDH and SONET began falling to Ethernet, and within a period of about 5 years from 2003~2008 the "legacy" telephone technologies began to quickly fade to historical Wikipedia entries.

The Cloud Computing Analogy

We are entering a period of "plentitude" in cloud computing. The "Law of Plentitude" is loosely defined as a threshold of acceptance (of a process, technology, system, etc) that if not adopted will put an entity at a greater risk of non-participation than if they participate at the point of emergence. In technology we normally place the "Law of Plentitude" at around 15~20% diffusion into a selected environment, community, industry, or organization.

For example, when the fax was first introduced there was a single machine. By itself it is not useful, as you have nobody to fax images to on a distant end. With two fax machines it is more useful, with a community of two. The law of exponents begins at 4 users (N*N-1/2) and you end up with an addressable community of 6 potential relationships. And it continues growing.

At "plentitude," you are at risk of not acquiring a fax machine, because your community has now adopted fax machines at a level that you need to be able to communicate with fax, or find yourself in jeopardy of losing your place in the community.

It can now be argued that cloud computing is quickly starting to reach a level of "plentitude." Communities of interest are emerging within clouds, allowing near zero-latency in user-to-user transaction time. Think of a financial trading community. Zero-latency means zero transaction delays. At some point if you are not in the zero-latency community, your operation is at risk of either losing business, or being expelled by other members of the community who do not want to deal with your latency.

Think of companies outsourcing their IT infrastructure into a commercial cloud service provider, or even building their own internal enterprise cloud infrastructure. If all things are equal, and the cloud-enabled company is able to recover the cost of building their own data center, reducing operational expenses, and potentially greatly increasing their ability to expand and reduce their processing capacity, then they may have more resources left over to increase research and development or product production.

Think of the guys who were running DMS 500s in 2009, vs. their competitors who were running much more powerful, and cheaper soft switches. We can produce a roll call of regional telephone companies who closed their doors over the past few years because they simply did not have the ability to compete with next generation technology.

The Cloud Computing "Plentitude" Target

The trick of course is to try and plan your refresh, through a well-managed business case and review, to as close to the plentitude "risk threshold" as possible. This will ensure you do not fall prey to a bad technology, are able to see the industry trend towards adopting a new technology, and that your competition does not leave you suffering through a last minute technology refresh.

Cloud computing and data center outsourcing may not be the ultimate technology refresh, and still has a number of issues to resolve (security, compliance, data center stability, etc). However, the trend is clear, companies are outsourcing into commercial cloud service providers, and enterprise virtualization is on the mind of every IT manager and CFO in the business community.

We hope

If your company or organization has not yet started the review process, the technology refresh process, and the planning process to determine if/when cloud adoption is the right thing for you company, we would strongly encourage that process to begin. Now.

If nothing else, you owe it to yourself and your organization to ensure they are not caught on the bad side of plentitude.

More Stories By John Savageau

John Savageau is a life long telecom and Internet geek, with a deep interest in the environment and all things green. Whether drilling into the technology of human communications, cloud computing, or describing a blue whale off Catalina Island, Savageau will try to present complex ideas in terms that are easily appreciated and understood.

Savageau is currently focusing efforts on data center consolidation strategies, enterprise architectures, and cloud computing migration planning in developing countries, including Azerbaijan, The Philippines, Palestine, Indonesia, Moldova, Egypt, and Vietnam.

John Savageau is President of Pacific-Tier Communications dividing time between Honolulu and Burbank, California.

A former career US Air Force officer, Savageau graduated with a Master of Science degree in Operations Management from the University of Arkansas and also received Bachelor of Arts degrees in Asian Studies and Information Systems Management from the University of Maryland.

IoT & Smart Cities Stories
The challenges of aggregating data from consumer-oriented devices, such as wearable technologies and smart thermostats, are fairly well-understood. However, there are a new set of challenges for IoT devices that generate megabytes or gigabytes of data per second. Certainly, the infrastructure will have to change, as those volumes of data will likely overwhelm the available bandwidth for aggregating the data into a central repository. Ochandarena discusses a whole new way to think about your next...
CloudEXPO | DevOpsSUMMIT | DXWorldEXPO are the world's most influential, independent events where Cloud Computing was coined and where technology buyers and vendors meet to experience and discuss the big picture of Digital Transformation and all of the strategies, tactics, and tools they need to realize their goals. Sponsors of DXWorldEXPO | CloudEXPO benefit from unmatched branding, profile building and lead generation opportunities.
DXWorldEXPO LLC announced today that Big Data Federation to Exhibit at the 22nd International CloudEXPO, colocated with DevOpsSUMMIT and DXWorldEXPO, November 12-13, 2018 in New York City. Big Data Federation, Inc. develops and applies artificial intelligence to predict financial and economic events that matter. The company uncovers patterns and precise drivers of performance and outcomes with the aid of machine-learning algorithms, big data, and fundamental analysis. Their products are deployed...
All in Mobile is a place where we continually maximize their impact by fostering understanding, empathy, insights, creativity and joy. They believe that a truly useful and desirable mobile app doesn't need the brightest idea or the most advanced technology. A great product begins with understanding people. It's easy to think that customers will love your app, but can you justify it? They make sure your final app is something that users truly want and need. The only way to do this is by ...
Digital Transformation and Disruption, Amazon Style - What You Can Learn. Chris Kocher is a co-founder of Grey Heron, a management and strategic marketing consulting firm. He has 25+ years in both strategic and hands-on operating experience helping executives and investors build revenues and shareholder value. He has consulted with over 130 companies on innovating with new business models, product strategies and monetization. Chris has held management positions at HP and Symantec in addition to ...
Dynatrace is an application performance management software company with products for the information technology departments and digital business owners of medium and large businesses. Building the Future of Monitoring with Artificial Intelligence. Today we can collect lots and lots of performance data. We build beautiful dashboards and even have fancy query languages to access and transform the data. Still performance data is a secret language only a couple of people understand. The more busine...
Cell networks have the advantage of long-range communications, reaching an estimated 90% of the world. But cell networks such as 2G, 3G and LTE consume lots of power and were designed for connecting people. They are not optimized for low- or battery-powered devices or for IoT applications with infrequently transmitted data. Cell IoT modules that support narrow-band IoT and 4G cell networks will enable cell connectivity, device management, and app enablement for low-power wide-area network IoT. B...
The hierarchical architecture that distributes "compute" within the network specially at the edge can enable new services by harnessing emerging technologies. But Edge-Compute comes at increased cost that needs to be managed and potentially augmented by creative architecture solutions as there will always a catching-up with the capacity demands. Processing power in smartphones has enhanced YoY and there is increasingly spare compute capacity that can be potentially pooled. Uber has successfully ...
SYS-CON Events announced today that CrowdReviews.com has been named “Media Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 22nd International Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 5–7, 2018, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. CrowdReviews.com is a transparent online platform for determining which products and services are the best based on the opinion of the crowd. The crowd consists of Internet users that have experienced products and services first-hand and have an interest in letting other potential buye...
When talking IoT we often focus on the devices, the sensors, the hardware itself. The new smart appliances, the new smart or self-driving cars (which are amalgamations of many ‘things'). When we are looking at the world of IoT, we should take a step back, look at the big picture. What value are these devices providing. IoT is not about the devices, its about the data consumed and generated. The devices are tools, mechanisms, conduits. This paper discusses the considerations when dealing with the...